Austria – Exit Polls show totally hung Parliament

17:30 – Doubt is now being expressed that the BZÖ will pick up a constituency seat in Kärnten and that might have knock on effects on whether they reach 4%. If they get wiped out of Parliament then a Red / Green coalition may yet happen.

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17:05 – First Viennese results coming through – SPÖ vote held up and ÖVP done badly

• SPÖ – 35.8 % – 69 Seats
• ÖVP – 34.5% – 66 Seats
• FPÖ – 11.1% – 21 Seats
• Grüne – 10.3% – 20 Seats
• BZÖ – 4.1% – 7 Seats

If the BZÖ do particularly badly in Wien they may drop below 4% overall and that could halve their representation in Parliament. Also, the FPÖ are sounding in inteviews as though they don’t want to be part of a coalition with the BZÖ.

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16:50 – Still absolutely nothing from Wien (Vienna) – expect the figures below to move as a Wien is traditionally a strong SPÖ location – will they have build upon an already large base? If not, then the overall figures for them may drop enough for the ÖVP to take the lead.
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16:40 – New Updates

• SPÖ – 35.8 % – 69 Seats
• ÖVP – 35.1% – 67 Seats
• FPÖ – 10.6% – 20 Seats
• Grüne – 9.9% – 19 Seats
• BZÖ – 4.3% – 8 Seats

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16:25 – It looks as though the BZÖ did particularly well in their Kärnten heartland and that’s given them local MPs and lifted them over the crucial 4% mark
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Initial Results are:

• SPÖ – 35.8 % – 69 Seats
• ÖVP – 35.3% – 68 Seats
• FPÖ – 10.5% – 20 Seats
• Grüne – 9.8% – 18 Seats
• BZÖ – 4.2% – 8 Seats

Here’s the immediate issues:

• The BZÖ have crossed the 4% barrier needed to pick up seats in the “proportional” section of the electoral system. Nobody was expecting them to do this well
• There are 183 seats in Parliament – 92 are needed to form a government
• SPÖ + Grüne = 87
• ÖVP + FPÖ = 88
• Given that these two natural solutions aren’t viable even medium term the other two options are:
• SPÖ + ÖVP = 137 – Return to a Grand Coalition and Proporz? Is this almost unthinkable for Austria?
• ÖVP + FPÖ + BZÖ = 96 – Could the FPÖ and BZÖ bury the hatchet?

These are only preliminary exit poll indications – once a few results come through the whole thing will sharpen up and we’ll see what we’re facing.