Euros Prediction – Point in Time
This is a point in time European Election prediction, attempting to predict what would happen if the European Election was happening today. I will try and update it on Sunday and then again next Thursday (when it will become a live prediction of the actual Election).
Changes are reflected on GB figures from 2009. I am not predicting the result in Northern Ireland.
| Party | Vote (%) | Vote Change | Seats | Seat Change |
| Labour | 27.5% | +11.7% | 24 | +11 |
| UKIP | 26.4% | +9.8% | 21 | +8 |
| Conservative | 22.8% | -5.1% | 16 | -9 |
| Greens | 8.7% | +0.6% | 3 | +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.7% | -6.1% | 2 | -9 |
| SNP / PC | 3.4% | +0.5% | 3 | – |
| BNP | 1.3% | -5.0% | 0 | -2 |
The point in time prediction reflects a recent decline in UKIP polling for the European elections, together with strong showing for the Greens. It will become clearer over the next week whether the Greens will sustain this support into polling day, and whether Labour will lose their lead in line with Westminster polling.
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