Final Euros Prediction
This is my final European Election prediction. (Updated 17:00 to reflect updated YouGov and Opinium data).
Changes are reflected on GB figures from 2009. I am not predicting the result in Northern Ireland.
In this prediction I have included probability forecasts on votes for the three main parties, based on a 10,000 run monte-carlo simulation.
| Party | Vote (%) | Vote Change | 95% CI Dist | Seats | Seat Change |
| UKIP | 29.9% | +13.3% | 24.3% – 35.4% | 25 | +12 |
| Labour | 26.4% | +11.4% | 24.0% – 28.9% | 22 | +9 |
| Conservative | 22.1% | -5.8% | 18.8% – 25.5% | 15 | -10 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.8% | -7.0% | 1 | -10 | |
| Greens | 7.0% | -1.1% | 2 | – | |
| SNP / PC | 4.3% | +1.4% | 4 | +1 | |
| BNP | 1.0% | -5.3% | 0 | -2 |
The following table shows probability outcomes for the top three parties.
| Outcome | |||
| First | Second | Third | Probability |
| UKIP | Labour | Conservative | 84.4% |
| Labour | UKIP | Conservative | 12.1% |
| Labour | Conservative | UKIP | 3.5% |
| Conservative | Labour | UKIP | 0.1% |
| UKIP | Conservative | Labour | <0.1% |
The volatile position from this weekend has firmed up and UKIP are now over 80% likely to top the poll on Thursday. The question is almost not whether they will win the contest for highest vote share but by how much. The Conservative position has slipped back somewhat and despite the Labour position improving it is not enough to seriously challenge UKIP.
I am forecasting an almost complete wipeout of Liberal Democrat MEPs, with the retention of only one (in the South East region) and this is in doubt.
| Region | Winner | Forecast Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | UKIP | Margin over Labour 1-2% |
| East England | UKIP | Margin over Conservatives 10% |
| London | Labour | c. 15% lead over next party – UKIP and Cons tied for second |
| NE England | Labour | 10-15% margin over UKIP |
| NW England | Labour | 3-5% margin over UKIP |
| SE England | UKIP | 5-7% margin over Conservatives. LD very close to losing last seat. |
| SW England | UKIP | 15%+ margin over Conservatives |
| West Midlands | UKIP | 10% margin over Labour |
| Yorkshire Humber | Labour / UKIP | Too close to call. Result may be within 0.1% margin. |
| Wales | Labour | 10%+ margin over UKIP |
| Scotland | SNP | 2-5% margin over Labour |
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